In light of my previous post (and obvious rush of stats-and-politics geek adrenaline), it seems fair to note this piece by Michael Gerson. I think Gerson talks past most of the debate about prognostication, but he does make an interesting-yet-different set of points about whether we should care so much about polls and measurements.
I think that, ethically speaking, I agree with him a good bit. As a thought experiment, would the world be better if we had a self-declared blackout on all polling data for 3 months before an election? I am willing to entertain that we might all benefit. Deciding whether a set of policies (and what should happen) is right or wrong is simply a very different issue than whether a prediction about what will happen is right or wrong.
More tomorrow.
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