In class today, Duncan asked about (something to the effect of) what awaits the next president economically? My answer was "betting" that whomever is elected will benefit from a recovering business cycle (barring potential policy-induced screw-ups, which are certainly possible) out of the Great Recession. That's what the economic history of business cycles would suggest after a deep recession accompanied by a financial crisis.
And as a corollary, the party that wins the White House in 2012 should have a leg up for 2016. (If I were taking bets, with even odds, I would guess that the winner this year will also win next time around, whether it's Romney or the eventual Democratic nominee following Obama's second term.)
In any event, I was amused to see today an article by a Slate reporter saying basically the same thing. The dateline is yesterday, and I would have mentioned it, had I known it was there.
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